Ravaged by ten years of conflict, conditions in the country are now worse than ever. Yet, the desperate Assad regime is using every conceivable means to cling on to power. 

In March 2011, Syrians had just finished watching two long-time Arab dictators fall in the neighbouring countries of Egypt and Tunisia under the weight of unprecedented mass protests. On the streets of Daraa, a group of teenagers went out and wrote a statement that no one had dared to write or say in that country for the 40 years it had been under the rule of the Assad family. ‘Your turn (to fall down) has come, Doctor’, read the graffiti.

For fear the sentiment expressed in the graffiti could spread across the country, the ‘Doctor’ in the statement ordered the arrest of those responsible for it. Bashar al-Assad was trained as an ophthalmologist and was known for his empathetic treatment of patients. But, after serving as Syria’s undisputed ruler for 11 years, corruption, economic mismanagement, rights violations and torture in military prisons became hallmarks of his style – like his father Hafez al-Assad, who took over in a coup in 1971 and passed away in 2000.

Assad sent his security forces to warn the teenagers’ families and the rest of Daraa not to take part in the wave of protests across Arab countries that was dubbed the ‘Arab Spring’. The tactic backfired. Peaceful protests erupted all over the country and lasted six months. Assad unleashed the full force of not only his notorious security agencies, but most branches of the military. The protestors responded by taking up arms, and Assad’s military saw defections to the opposition, thus starting a civil war that has now ravaged the country for ten years.

Unsure what shape Syria would take, a confused world hesitated to back the little-known Syrian opposition. Impatient for success, the armed revolutionaries welcomed foreign fighters, unwittingly losing the sympathy of Western powers in doing so. And as groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS saw an opportunity to fill the growing rule of law vacuum, Western powers decided to shift attention from Assad’s ruthless tactics to containing such groups. Iran and Russia saw an opening too and lent seemingly limitless support to Assad’s collapsing army.

The world’s largest refugee crisis

After ten years of conflict, nearly half a million people have been killed, at least six million Syrians have been made refugees and a further five million displaced internally. The total population was little more than 20 million in 2010. Syria now stands as the world’s largest refugee crisis since the First World War.

Despite the horrific humanitarian toll and the still-unresolved conflict, some have, nevertheless, declared Assad a winner. He is still in office with many foreign powers preferring the brutal dictator in Damascus to the possibility of radical groups having a foothold in the Mediterranean country.

However, realities on the ground tell a very different story. Despite extensive support from Iran and Russia, the 55-year-old dictator controls only 63 per cent of the country. And those Syrians who chose to remain within his territory suffer significantly worse economic conditions than a decade ago, including lack of bread, gas, education and health services. Poverty and mismanagement prevail. Reports from Syria show Assad’s forces are increasing pressure on civilians to obtain bribes.

Worse for Assad, the regime is not fully in control of what is left of the country. Foreign Shi’ite militias, who hail from as far afield as Afghanistan, as well as Iranian and Russian troops have become the real power brokers on the ground. Pro-Assad commanders are subordinate to militia leaders and, reportedly, even to rank-and-file foreign fighters from the Lebanese Shi’ite Hezbollah whose forces were a major boost to Assad’s troops.

Many Syrian army soldiers have to work for private security contractors, such as the Kremlin-affiliated Wagner Group or Iran’s Quds Force, which offers religious affiliation plus cash. On the other hand, Iranian and Russian troops visibly enjoy better access to services and amenities.

The devastation of the past ten years appears to have taught the dictator little. Assad has not found any political equilibrium to encourage the return of millions of Syrian refugees. If anything, he is doubling down on highly controversial legislation. Law 10 gives his regime the right to expropriate homes and property of Syrians who chose to leave the internecine conflict under the pretext of aiding ‘terrorists’.

Instead of offering economic plans to support both his base and other Syrians who may be considering a return, Assad is working to pay off the foreign powers and troops that have kept him in partial power. Now $1 buys more than SYP 3,200 when it bought SYP 50 before the uprising.

‘Today, the situation in Syria, especially in the regime-controlled areas, is worse than ever’, says Ammar Hamou, a senior editor at Syria Direct. ‘A few days ago, I contacted a member of my family in Damascus, who told me that the price of a man's jacket is equal to the salary of an employee for two months.’

The international community, weary of the decade-long conflict, has also expressed relief at the lack of heavy clashes. But that too has not solved the root causes of the plight of millions of Syrians. The current lull has given Assad time to launch yet another internal witch hunt for relatives of opposition sympathisers. He remains bitter that his compatriots went out against him.

‘The regime is devoted to implementing a secure grip in its areas of control and is opening the files of the citizens who stood against it for ten years. Of course, this is not just a fear. I give you an example from my city, Douma in the countryside of Damascus. Today the regime is doing a study. We have documented the arrest of a number of people in that area’, says Hamou.

Syrian revolutionaries fault the West for the status-quo in part because they imposed a weapons embargo on anti-Assad factions for fear that those weapons might fall into the hands of anti-Western radical groups. A decision that, they say, essentially prolonged the conflict. Yet, they also say their desire to rid Syria of Assad hasn’t been diminished. And despite the humanitarian debacle, they say international intervention, particularly military intervention, should end in order to allow Syrians to define their own future.

For them, Iran and Russia bought Assad time, which he is using to cause further bloodshed, destruction and suffering. Whether in Sunni Idlib or the Kurdish-controlled territories, refugees lead a hard life but one devoid of Assad’s much-feared security forces nonetheless.

‘Yes, the day will come when we will live in freedom, but the problem is how much will we pay for freedom? How much blood and destruction will we pay?’ asks Hamou. ‘Perhaps when we get freedom, we forget the bloody years. But will the mother who lost her children forget? And the boy whose father died? Will they forgive us? Will they forgive the international community?’

Syria 2011 to 2021 – from revolution to devastation

Emad Mekay is the IBA’s Middle East Correspondent. He can be contacted at emad.mekay@int-bar.org