Tightening borders, expanding challenges: global migration trends from a UK perspective
Laura Devine
Laura Devine Immigration, London
Introduction
The global political landscape is undergoing a significant shift towards restrictive migration policies. Western governments are responding to political and economic pressures by tightening immigration controls. This article examines key developments and policy drivers in several jurisdictions, including the impact of recent elections, legislative changes and the broader direction of travel in the immigration sector.
Overview of UK trends
Election of Keir Starmer and a Labour government
Elected on 4 July 2024, Keir Starmer’s Labour government has adopted a different migration approach from its Conservative predecessors. While committed to a rules-based immigration system, Labour has sought to shift the discourse away from punitive measures towards evidence-based policy planning. However, economic and political pressures have slowed substantive changes to Home Office policy and operation.
End of the Rwanda scheme
One of the first significant changes under Labour was the termination of the contentious Rwanda deportation scheme. The programme, which aimed to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for third-country relocation rather than processing asylum cases from within the UK, faced legal and ethical challenges and was ultimately deemed unworkable. Its cancellation departs from the previous Conservative administration’s hardline deterrence strategies.
Migration Advisory Committee reviews and policy planning
Labour has reinstated the role of experts in shaping migration policy, with the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) – the independent public body that advises government on migration issues – conducting comprehensive reviews on labour shortages in the IT and engineering sectors and family-based immigration route financial requirements. This development reflects a shift to evidence-based policymaking, moving away from politically informed immigration caps and constraints. Nevertheless, the government is not bound to implement recommendations from the MAC and may choose to put forward alternative proposals should political tides turn in the coming months and years.
Rise of the Reform Party
Despite Labour’s efforts to create a balanced migration strategy, political pressure from the right remains strong. The Reform Party, capitalising on public concerns about immigration expressed throughout the 2024 General Election campaign and beyond, has advocated for stricter border controls, a significant reduction in net migration and increased deportations. Its growing influence is shaping the national debate and pressuring the Government to adopt more restrictive policies, as evidenced by the Home Office emphasising rising net migration and combatting people smugglers as top priorities.
Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill
Labour has introduced the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill to modernise the immigration system while maintaining strict enforcement measures. Key provisions of the Bill include improved border security, streamlined asylum processing and increased use of technology in immigration enforcement. However, critics have denounced its expansion of detention powers, insufficient repeal of legislative provisions introduced under the previous Conservative governments and failure to address underlying issues that contribute to exploitation and irregular migration.
Overview of current global anti-migration trends
Migration has become one of the most politically charged issues worldwide. Governments are introducing measures to curb legal and irregular immigration, reflecting public sentiment and political calculations. Across the Europe, the UK and the US, a combination of economic uncertainty, security concerns and populist rhetoric is shaping increasingly restrictive migration frameworks.
Election of Donald Trump and a fundamental overhaul of US immigration policy
Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024 has significantly altered US immigration policy compared to the approach under the previous Biden administration. Within weeks of taking office, the administration issued a series of executive orders to curb legal and irregular migration. These include reinstating strict border controls, limiting asylum applications, and increasing deportations.
The administration’s emphasis on national security and economic protectionism has reinforced global scepticism towards migration. This fundamental shift in US politics has also impacted immigration outflows from the US, with celebrities, high-net worth individuals and economic migrants relocating to the UK and continental Europe in record numbers. [1]
European elections and attitudes
Europe has also seen a marked shift in migration policy, driven by electoral outcomes and public sentiment. Recent elections in Austria, France and Germany have resulted in rightward shifts, with mainstream parties adopting more rigid stances on migration to counter the influence of nationalist parties. The European Parliament elections in June 2024 and ensuing rise in far-right members being elected reflected similar trends, leading to a more fragmented approach to immigration within the EU.
The EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum, which came into force on 11 June 2024 amid growing anti-immigration sentiment, harmonises EU rules to manage migration and establish a common asylum system. The four pillars of the Pact include:
- secure external borders;
- fast and efficient procedures for processing asylum claims;
- an effective system of solidarity to ensure that the obligations of asylum processing are shared more equally across member states; and
- responsibility and embedding migration in international partnerships, including to combat people smuggling.
While the Pact was created to balance humanitarian obligations with security concerns, critics argue it leans heavily towards deterrence rather than integration and may, in turn, prove counterproductive to its intended aims.
The direction of travel for immigration policy
In the UK
The political and policy landscape in the UK suggests a continued tightening of migration policies driven by internal and external pressures, with the following developments likely throughout 2025:
- pressures from the Reform and Conservative Parties – right-wing parties continue to push for stricter controls, challenging Labour’s centrist approach;
- county council elections in 2025 – upcoming local elections will serve as a barometer for public sentiment on migration, influencing future policy decisions as the first gauge of public opinion since the general election;
- expected passage of the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill – with the Labour Party’s significant parliamentary majority, the Bill is likely to pass with bipartisan support, reinforcing security-driven migration policies and a crackdown on people smuggling and irregular arrivals;
- continued digitalisation of the immigration system – following through with plans under the previous administration, the Labour Party has prioritised modernisation, aiming to streamline visa applications and border security through digital solutions; and
- an expected white paper on immigration – anticipated within the month and will indicate the government’s future path forward on migration issues, likely focusing on measures to bring down net immigration and reduce the British labour market’s reliance on overseas workers.
Globally
Beyond the UK, migration policies are hardening worldwide, with the US implementing strict border enforcement under the second Trump administration, European nations adopting increasingly restrictive measures, often influenced by domestic political dynamics, and countries such as Australia and Canada adjusting visa policies to prioritise economic migration over humanitarian intake. Meanwhile, developing nations face growing pressure as both transit and destination countries in an evolving migration landscape.
How can lawyers prepare?
Immigration lawyers worldwide should closely monitor developments, as the tightening of migration policies presents challenges and opportunities. As governments implement stricter border controls, limit asylum applications and prioritise economic over humanitarian migration, immigration lawyers must adapt strategies to navigate these evolving landscapes. Staying abreast of new legislative changes will be crucial to effectively advise clients in these dynamic and fast-moving times. Additionally, with the growing influence of populist rhetoric and right-wing parties, lawyers should advocate for more balanced, evidence-based policies while preparing to handle more cases involving deportations and immigration application rejections. This shift towards increasingly restrictive measures may also spur legal challenges, offering immigration lawyers opportunities to represent clients in cases that challenge these policies’ legality and ethical implications.
Conclusion
Migration remains a defining issue in global politics, with governments balancing economic imperatives, security concerns and public sentiment. While the UK, under Labour, has shifted towards expert-led policymaking, domestic political pressures and global trends suggest an ongoing push towards tighter controls. As governments refine their approaches, the future of migration policy will likely remain a contentious and evolving arena into the second half of the decade.
[1] ‘Americans apply for UK citizenship in record numbers’ Financial Times (London: 3 March 2025).