Tariffs, trade and talent: a strategic immigration update on workforce strategy

Julia Onslow-Cole

Fragomen, London

julia.onslow-cole@fragomen.com

Raj Mann

Fragomen, London

rmann@fragomen.com

Introduction

In 2025, trade policy has become talent policy. Tariffs, sanctions, industrial strategies and supply-chain realignments are no longer abstract economic measures; they determine where companies build, hire and innovate. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are transforming labour markets, altering the skills businesses require.

Immigration law sits at the centre of these shifts. For legal practitioners and corporate leaders, the lesson is clear: immigration and workforce strategy must be integrated into business planning if organisations are to remain resilient and competitive.

Although the forces at play are global, the sources lie in US trade policies. Starting on 2 April 2025, the Trump administration announced, paused and implemented steep tariffs on a variety of goods, materials and countries, setting in motion a cascade of responses from governments worldwide. They not only reset the flows of goods but also redirected the flows of people. For this reason, we begin with the US before turning to the wider consequences.

The US: ‘America First Trade Policy’ intensified compliance scrutiny and talent attractiveness

The Trump administration’s tariffs have reset the global trade landscape with a clear US-focused objective: to create pressures for companies to reshore operations, rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity and generate jobs for US workers. This drive to onshore production is reshaping the country’s role as a trading nation and spotlighting the need for more talent in the US.

Given its world-class universities, research hubs and large corporate base, the US has long been the world’s top destination for international talent, but the current trade strategy increased enforcement action[1] and recent moves to overhaul the H-1B programme[2] may have an impact on US competitiveness and traditional global talent flows. In particular, increased fees and wage requirements in the H-1B program and the requirement that new US university graduates work in the US risk disrupting one of the key pipelines for early career talent.

So, at the same time the tariffs’ stated aim is to encourage US investment that benefit the American economy, the narrowing of immigration pathways and increased restrictions may risk leaving employers with acute skills shortages in the US.[3] Immigration and mobility professionals must help their organisations to navigate this tension by identifying ways their businesses can avoid and overcome critical skills gaps and address compliance challenges.

Trade tensions and global talent mobility

This shift in trade relationships, designed to pull production and jobs back to the US, has inevitably spilled across borders. By combining tariffs with tighter immigration rules, these new policies may prompt companies to expand operations onshore while simultaneously constraining their access to the very talent those facilities require. The potential effect is twofold: domestic skills gaps in advanced industries and global knock-on consequences as other governments move to capture displaced investment and talent flows.

Although the global economy has proven more resilient than many first feared in April, growth remains modest. The IMF projects global GDP growth of around three per cent in 2025, constrained by tariff escalation and geopolitical conflict.[4]

The semiconductor sector illustrates the impact clearly. Export controls and subsidies under the US CHIPS Act, together with similar measures abroad, are redrawing supply chains. Engineers and compliance staff are being redeployed to new facilities in the US, Japan and Europe, often at short notice, leaving global mobility teams having to anticipate visa pathways well in advance.

Automotive firms are similarly impacted by the tariff and trade landscape. The sector is looking to decentralise research and development (‘R&D’) hubs to avoid tariff penalties linked to rules of origin. Energy companies are also having to rethink their global mobility programmes due to global conflicts, rising civil unrest and sanctions in more volatile locations they operate in. Furthermore, while clean energy and electric vehicle incentives in both the US and EU are spurring huge investment, skills shortages are widening and threaten delivery. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data[5] show persistent manufacturing vacancies above pre-pandemic levels, while the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Skills for Jobs indicators[6] highlight acute shortages in science, technology and engineering across advanced economies. Without immigration and reskilling, these gaps will not only persist but increase.

Immigration strategy has, therefore, become a board-level issue. Site location and supply-chain decisions must now be accompanied by immigration pathway analysis and workforce planning.

Intelligence-led workforce planning

If tariffs set the context, rising immigration costs define the constraints. Governments are raising immigration application fees and qualifying minimum salary thresholds for work permits as part of broader economic strategies. For example, in April 2025, the UK increased visa fees substantially, with the cost of assigning a Certificate of Sponsorship more than doubling to £525.[7] The Immigration Health Surcharge was also raised. Hong Kong announced visa fee rises of up to 50 per cent,[8] while Singapore’s Employment Pass threshold climbed to S$5,600 in January 2025, with higher thresholds in financial services.[9] Germany and Poland continue to raise Blue Card and work permit salary floors.

These measures not only ensure that highly skilled foreign national talent is admitted, but increase the cost base for employers. This is where intelligence-led planning helps manage this complexity. By combining immigration expertise with labour market data, companies can identify where skills are available, which visa routes are accessible and how costs compare across jurisdictions.

An automotive company seeking AI specialists for electric vehicle research, for example, may conclude that more advantageous post-study visa options exist in Canada or the Netherlands than in the US or the UK. Workforce intelligence could prompt the company to establish a satellite centre in one of these alternative markets, where immigration pathways also facilitate permanent residence and, as a result, increase longer-term stability for foreign national talent and the company.

Pharmaceutical and financial services firms are also taking similar steps, aligning research and digital functions with jurisdictions offering both talent and favourable immigration regimes. For Global Mobility teams, the task is to ensure these decisions are compliant with sponsorship obligations, right-to-work rules and regulatory changes, while anticipating the next shift in thresholds and fees.

Crisis management as standing strategy

In an age of frequent geopolitical shocks, organisations need an adaptive playbook for lawful rapid mobilisation. Crises, whether political, environmental or regulatory, are unfortunately no longer exceptional.

Effective crisis mobility has three stages: pre-planning, response and after-action review. Pre-planning involves understanding the variables. It involves collating accurate data on staff locations, nationalities and visa statuses and the designation of relocation hubs with manageable entry requirements. When crises strike, rapid but compliant redeployment is essential, with disciplined communication to both employees and authorities. After-action reviews and then identifies gaps and updates playbooks.

Some firms negotiate memoranda of understanding with governments in advance in those jurisdictions where it is possible, securing expedited processing during emergencies. With crisis management no longer being a rarity for global mobility teams, increasingly organisations are aligning crisis planning with their wider workforce management strategy, and redeploying staff where their skills can also fill immediate business gaps. This approach turns reactive redeployment into a strategic enabler of continuity.

The global race for emerging talent

This short-term resilience of crisis management must be balanced with medium-term workforce strategy and planning. The geography of emerging talent is shifting, and restrictive policies in the US[10] and the UK[11] risk eroding their dominance as hubs for the world’s top talent. The UK’s decision to restrict students from bringing dependents in 2024, and tightened rules around switching to work visas as well as the rising uncertainty around H-1B chances and post-study student employment in the US are almost certain to deter some number of foreign national student applicants.

Other countries are moving quickly to take advantage of this shift. Canada, for example, links its education policy with immigration, offering post-graduation work permits and residency pathways. Germany uses the EU Blue Card to retain STEM graduates and the Netherlands, France and others offer flexible ‘search year’ visas. These flexible post-study schemes are part of a wider policy trend in Europe, one that the US had long carried out but may be moving away from: using higher education as a pipeline for talent. Germany, France and the Netherlands see international students as a potential long-term workforce, and design immigration policies to encourage them to remain after studies.

In Asia, South Korea and Taiwan are investing heavily in semiconductor and AI scholarships, while India is building its own research ecosystem to retain and attract talent.

For companies, the message is clear: tomorrow’s AI engineers and robotics specialists may be concentrated in new markets such as Toronto, Berlin or Seoul rather than just Silicon Valley or London. Recruitment strategies and university partnerships must adapt, and legal advisors must ensure immigration programmes can capture these new talent flows.

Conclusion

Immigration and workforce strategy are now inseparable. The shift in free trade agreements and application of steep tariffs triggered global realignments impacting global supply chains and workforce strategies. Tightening immigration program obligations, intensifying scrutiny of compliance measures, higher costs and structural skills shortages make immigration a central component of corporate resilience.

For global mobility practitioners and the C-Suite three points stand out. Immigration is now a core element of competitiveness. Compliance must be integrated into business planning with costs and compliance managed intentionally through intelligence-led planning and documented controls. And the geography of talent is shifting. Businesses that anticipate these changes and align immigration with workforce planning will be best placed to succeed.

Immigration is now a strategic asset at the heart of resilience, continuity and growth – and the role of the global mobility and immigration professional is critical to C-suite company growth strategy.